The Trump administration has announced the closure of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading global hub for atmospheric science. This decision poses a serious risk to weather forecasting, climate modeling, and humanity’s ability to prepare for escalating climate impacts.
The White House, via official Russ Vought, labeled NCAR a source of “climate alarmism” and intends to dismantle the institution, while preserving some core functions like weather modeling. This move comes as global temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, raising concerns about the timing and consequences of such a disruption.
Why this matters: NCAR’s research underpins key assessments from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which inform international policy on emissions reduction and adaptation. Disrupting this work could significantly increase uncertainty around future climate scenarios and hinder effective preparation.
Founded in 1960, NCAR has historically filled a critical gap in large-scale atmospheric research beyond the scope of individual universities. Its 830 employees conduct studies ranging from ocean depths to solar activity, monitoring phenomena like wildfires, floods, and space weather.
Key Contributions at Risk:
- Tropical Storm Understanding: NCAR invented the GPS dropsonde, a critical tool for analyzing hurricanes.
- Flight Safety: Its wind-shear warning systems have prevented countless aviation accidents.
- Weather Modeling: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), developed by NCAR, is widely used in daily forecasts and climate studies.
- Climate Simulation: The Community Earth System Model (CESM), considered the most widely used global climate model, supports research into carbon emissions, ocean currents, heatwaves, and ice melt.
- Atmospheric Monitoring: NCAR operates specialized aircraft to study CO2 levels, air pollution, and solar activity.
Disrupting NCAR’s work could halt improvements in everyday weather forecasts, potentially leading to more costly disasters and fatalities. As meteorologist Jeff Masters states, this is akin to dismantling weapons research on the eve of a major war.
Scientists like Colin Carlson emphasize that NCAR’s models are essential for addressing climate-sensitive health issues, such as predicting disease outbreaks linked to changing weather patterns.
The center’s research on aerosols is also critical for evaluating geoengineering proposals, which seek to manipulate the climate to mitigate warming. Eliminating this research would leave decision-makers “flying blind” when considering drastic interventions like solar radiation management.
The closure of NCAR represents a significant setback for climate science and preparedness, potentially increasing vulnerability to extreme weather and undermining international efforts to address global warming.
